Estimates show that coal will maintain almost record levels for years to come, and the worldwide demand for this resource will hit an impressive 8.7 billion tonnes this year. The energy crisis brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has seriously thrown off world gas markets, is primarily responsible for this rise in coal usage.
Why, given the worldwide gas crisis, is coal demand rising?
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine pushed world natural gas prices to skyrocket, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has noted that coal output trade and electricity generation from coal have reached record levels. Given the unusual change in the energy scene, coal is now a significant substitute for natural gas, especially given its high prices.
After a downturn during the worldwide COVID epidemic, the IEA said the coal comeback indicates fossil fuel consumption is en route to reaching a new peak of 8.77 billion tonnes by the end of this year. Until 2027, this demand could stay at almost record proportions.
In what ways is China leading the way in coal consumption?
With 30% more coal consumed than the rest of the world combined, the IEA’s study ranks China as the primary driver of fuel demand. With a 1% increase in demand, China’s coal consumption is predicted to hit a record 4.9 billion tonnes in 2024.
China’s reliance on coal to satisfy its rising energy demand means that coal consumption in the nation is unlikely to slow down shortly, so power plants have been a significant factor in this increase. The IEA said that two-thirds of the world’s coal consumption is accounted for in the global electricity sector, which is being reshaped by the fast deployment of clean energy technology. “Our models thus show worldwide demand for coal plateauing through 2027, even as electricity consumption increases sharply.”
Why is India's coal consumption showing such a notable rise?
Following China’s lead, India’s coal demand is predicted to climb by almost 5% in 2024 to reach 1.3 billion tonnes. This indicates a degree of demand hitherto unheard of anywhere else save China. As India’s economy is expanding fast, which strains the generation of power from fossil fuels, the rising use of coal in the nation reflects its energy needs. Particularly when its energy demand spikes, India’s coal use is anticipated to rise dramatically in the following years,” the IEA said in its study.
Why is the use of coal declining in developed nations?
While coal consumption grows in emerging countries, the reverse happens in developed ones. Coal electricity generation has peaked in the United States and the European Union. The IEA projects that while the European Union’s coal use is predicted to drop by 12%, coal use in the US is expected to shrink by 5%.
Coal has already been written off as historical in the United Kingdom. In September, the last coal plant in Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire produced its final megawatt, close to the government’s 2024 phasing-out target.
How might the expansion of renewable energy limit global coal consumption?
Notwithstanding the increase in power demand in developing nations, the IEA projects that the predicted boom in renewable energy over the next three years could help constrain coal use. Together with efficiency gains, developing renewable energy technology should help reduce the demand for further coal-fired power generation.
However, the IEA advised that meteorological conditions, especially in China, will significantly shape short-term trends for coal consumption. Over the medium run, “the speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important,” the IEA said.
What Future Demand for Coal Says Here?
The IEA forecasts that coal demand will level off through 2027, even if the global gas crisis drives fast increases in coal consumption. The organisation underlines that by the end of the decade, coal demand will finally drop from the combination of global policy reforms, energy efficiency, and renewable energy deployment.
“The future of coal is closely tied to the continuous transformation of the global energy system,” the IEA concluded. “While coal consumption remains high in the near term, the long-term trend points towards a reduction as cleaner energy sources become more prevalent.”
Coal’s part in global power generation remains a significant and divisive topic as the globe works on sustainable energy alternatives and deals with the consequences of the energy crisis. The ongoing reliance on coal in big emerging nations highlights the difficulties of switching to a low-carbon future even as the worldwide drive for clean energy picks steam.
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