Boxing Day Spending Set to Rise Modestly, Online Shopping Continues to Dominate

Boxing Day Spending Set to Rise Modestly, Online Shopping Continues to Dominate

Shoppers are expected to spend £3.7bn this Boxing Day, a modest 1.3% increase from 2023. However, high streets are expected to be quieter as many consumers turn to online platforms to snap up beauty and technology bargains from the Comfort of their homes.

The trend of shopping from the sofa means that post-Christmas discounts begin well before families gather for their festive meals. Online sales have been available since midnight on Christmas Eve, allowing eager shoppers to kick off their bargain hunting before many have tasted their turkey or Brussels sprouts.

“With the ease of online shopping, the holiday sales season starts much earlier than ever. More than 11 million people were expected to shop online on Christmas Day this year, marking a 3.6% year-on-year increase.”

Why Are Fewer Shoppers Visiting High Streets on Boxing Day?

Despite the rise in online shopping, the number of people visiting physical stores on Boxing Day is expected to remain unchanged compared to 2023. This shift is part of a broader trend of declining high street foot traffic on 26 December, a development that has become more apparent in recent years.

“Several large retailers, including most John Lewis outlets and Marks & Spencer, choose to close their doors on Boxing Day, giving their employees a well-deserved break. This has contributed to a gradual decline in footfall on high streets during the post-Christmas sales.”

In addition, the complexities of family gatherings and the challenges of post-Christmas travel slow down high-street trade. “Families with multiple celebrations spread across different locations often find it difficult to venture out for the traditional Boxing Day sales.”

What's Driving the Surge in Online Sales and Struggling In-Store Purchases?

Despite fewer people visiting stores, online sales are expected to rise significantly. Last year, Boxing Day sales increased by 7.5% compared to 2022, with online sales rising by 9%, while in-store sales grew by just under 2%, primarily driven by inflation.

“The trend towards online shopping has been further strengthened by the ease and convenience of purchasing from home. Online shoppers will continue dominating Boxing Day sales, but in-store footfall remains slower.”

This year, inflation has eased somewhat, helping to alleviate the cost of living crisis. With pay rises and benefit increases for many individuals, more disposable income is available for consumers to spend on treats and luxury items.

Will Health and Beauty Sales Continue to Grow in 2025?

Experts predict that health and beauty sales will continue to perform strongly, especially in 2025. Social media promotion drives interest in premium skincare, cosmetics, and high-tech beauty tools like LED face masks. Additionally, the return to office work and increased social interactions boost sales in these categories.

Beauty sales are expected to grow substantially, aided by influencers and online promotion. “There’s a noticeable rise in interest around high-end skincare and tech-driven beauty products. Social media is helping these trends take off.”

Why Are Fashion Sales Expected to Decline?

However, one sector that is forecasted to see a decline is fashion. Clothing makes up nearly a quarter of total retail sales, but spending in this area is expected to drop due to discounting prompted by a relatively mild autumn.

“Fashion retailers have been offering significant discounts, but consumers are less eager to splurge on clothing this year. The ongoing trend of conservative spending affects fashion sales, especially after the early Black Friday deals.”

Has Boxing Day lost Its Appeal to Black Friday Shoppers?

Boxing Day has lost some of its former appeal, especially as bargain hunters increasingly flock to Black Friday and Cyber Monday for their holiday deals. “By Boxing Day’s arrival, most people have completed Christmas shopping. The excitement for post-Christmas sales just isn’t the same as it used to be.”

Evidence from Black Friday trading shows that while Christmas sales will likely be “OK,” they will not be as strong as previous years. “The general retail environment isn’t as strong as it once was, but the cost of living crisis is subsiding, and this will lead to moderate growth in retail spending over the next few months.”

What Are the Expectations for Retail Sales Growth in 2025?

Despite a somewhat slow Boxing Day, analysts are optimistic about retail sales in 2025. As inflation eases and disposable income increases, analysts expect spending to rise, particularly on premium products. According to figures from PwC, festive spending this year is projected to grow by 5%, reaching £22.7bn, driven by food, technology, and premium clothing purchases.

“Consumers are likely to trade up to pricier brands, moving away from supermarket own labels and returning to designer labels. There’s a clear shift towards premium purchases, particularly in travel, dining out, and electronics.”

What Challenges Do Retailers Face in the Coming Year?

However, some remain cautious about the second half of 2025. Changes to employer national insurance contributions could increase costs for retailers, potentially leading to higher inflation. “Retailers will have to pass these increased costs onto consumers, which could dampen spending, although not to the same degree as in previous years.”

Despite these potential challenges, analysts predict that consumer spending will continue to strengthen, with wages rising and disposable income increasing. “Shoppers are expected to return to higher-end brands, driving spending on luxury goods, travel, and dining out.”

As 2024 ends and the new year approaches, the outlook for UK retail remains cautiously optimistic, with spending likely to increase, but challenges still ahead for many businesses.

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